Allianz Green Transition Tracker 2026: The clean-tech turning point and why emissions could soon follow

Ahead of the COP31 climate conference in Antalya, the second edition of the Allianz Green Transition Tracker finds that, overall, the world is progressing towards net zero, but far too slowly to meet global climate targets. The report, “The clean-tech turning point and why emissions could soon follow,” shows clean technologies beating back political headwinds, but failing to displace fossil fuels fast enough to limit global emissions in time to meet net-zero goals.

The Tracker scores 65 economies, responsible for 81% of global greenhouse-gas emissions, on five indicators: carbon and energy intensity, consumption- and territorial-based emissions per capita and the low-carbon share of the power mix. Its Progress Score measures how far each country has come since 2015 toward its 2050 net-zero benchmark. This year, 56 countries improved their score by 2 points on average. But only about a third of countries have kept pace with their reduction pathways aligned with the Paris Agreement. Luxembourg, Denmark and Estonia top the Progress Score ranking, and all ten front-runners are European. Colombia posted the largest improvement (+16.5 points) thanks to a hydropower rebound and new solar capacity, while Gulf oil producers remain at the bottom.

“Almost every country is moving in the right direction. The problem is the speed. Given the current trajectory net zero will only be reached in 2064 - 14 years behind schedule,” said Patrick Hoffmann, ESG Economist at Allianz Research. “And the climate-policy gap is widening, with the leaders pulling further ahead while the laggards struggle to keep up.”

Countries in the top half of the ranking gained 2.6 points on average, twice as much as those in the bottom half (1.3). The EU still leads (+2.2 points), but its emissions fell by just 0.2% in 2025 after annual cuts of 4% on average previously; at this pace, it would reach its benchmarks only in 2057. The US gained only 1.2 points and slipped to 41st in the Progress Score ranking as emissions rose for a second year and coal-fired generation jumped 13%. China (+2.3 points, 43rd) and India (+4.5 points, up five places to 45th) show signs of a turning point: China’s emissions growth slowed to virtually zero as battery electric vehicles approached half of new car sales, and India recorded its first emissions decline outside an economic contraction in 25 years.

In 2025, renewables – with a share of 33.5% – overtook coal (33.2%) as the world’s largest source of electricity for the first time in more than a century and supplied 99% of new generation, slowing global emissions growth to 0.7% from 1.5% in each of the two previous years. Falling costs are carrying the shift further: annual battery-storage additions surged from around 2 GWh in 2015 to 307 GWh in 2025 as installed costs dropped 91%, and the price gap between battery-electric and combustion-engine cars has narrowed from 49% to 20% since 2019. The next phase will be decided as much by grids and storage as by new capacity: clean-energy investment is set to rise by 6.5% to USD2.2trn in 2026, with grid spending up 21% and storage up 36%, even as investment in renewable generation dips.

Geopolitics is currently sending a stronger price signal than climate policy, driving up diesel prices and demand for electric vehicles. Allianz Research calculates that matching the Iran-conflict-related rise in diesel prices through carbon pricing alone would take a CO₂ price of more than EUR200 per ton. In the EU, battery-electric cars reached 30% of new registrations in September, up 11 percentage points in a year. However, a new round of fossil-fuel subsidies, which remain around 70% higher than they were before the 2022 energy crunch, poses a risk to Europe’s progress.

Allianz Research expects fossil-fuel CO₂ emissions to decline this year– even though the global economy is growing robustly. Cheaper clean technology and high fossil-fuel prices are the main tailwinds. Yet rising electricity demand and grid bottlenecks are the biggest near-term risks: AI and data centers alone could add around 0.6% to global emissions by 2030. High financing costs, trade barriers and policy uncertainty could slow the deployment of green technologies and throw into question the ability to reach peak emissions.

“Fossil-fuel CO₂ emissions could fall this year for the first time outside a recession, declining by around 0.5%, but that owes more to cheap clean technology and expensive oil than to stronger climate policy,” said Ludovic Subran, Chief Economist and Chief Investment Officer at Allianz. “A price shock is not a strategy. Governments should resist cushioning it with new fossil-fuel subsidies and instead lock in the shift with predictable carbon pricing and faster investment in grids and storage.”

Asia-Pacific's 16 ranked economies gained 1.8 points in the Progress Score on average, slower than the global average (2.0). Twelve of them improved, led by the Philippines (+5.8), India (+4.5) and New Zealand (+3.6), while Kazakhstan (−1.2), Sri Lanka (−0.4) and Bangladesh (−0.3) lost ground and Indonesia was unchanged. The region spans almost the entire ranking, from New Zealand (23rd) to Indonesia (64th).Clean power is the common bright spot: renewable generation across the region grew 14.8% in 2025, with solar up 34.5%, lifting renewables' share of the regional power mix to around 32%. Coal-fired generation, however, fell by just 1.0%. China (+2.3, 43rd) and India (+4.5, 45th) show signs of a turning point. Emissions in the region's 16 economies rose 0.2% in 2025 and are 21.9% above their 2015 level.

“Asia-Pacific is where the global green transition will be won or lost. Progress is gaining ground across much of the region, with rapid growth in renewables and encouraging signs of a turning point in China and India. But coal dependence remains high and emissions are still rising. The challenge now is to scale up clean power fast enough to meet growing electricity demand while steadily displacing fossil fuels,” says Katharina Utermoehl, Head of Thematic and Policy Research at Allianz Research.

The Allianz Group is one of the world’s leading insurers and asset managers, active in almost 70 countries and serving around 97 million private and corporate customers*. Our customers benefit from a broad range of personal and corporate insurance services, including property, life and health insurance, as well as assistance services, credit and global business insurance. Recognized for the seventh consecutive year as the number one global insurance brand in Interbrand’s Best Global Brands 2025 ranking, Allianz’s success is built on technology-enabled customer centricity – providing peace of mind, protection, and prevention for our customers and strengthening the resilience of individuals, communities, and societies. We are one of the world’s largest investors, managing around 791 billion euros** on behalf of our insurance customers. Furthermore, our asset managers PIMCO and Allianz Global Investors manage about 2.2 trillion euros** of third-party assets. Thanks to our systematic integration of environmental and social criteria in our business processes and investment decisions, Allianz received an MSCI ESG Rating of AAA (as of March 2026). In 2025, our 156,000 dedicated employees achieved a total business volume of 186.9 billion euros and an operating profit of 17.4 billion euros for our shareholders.

_{* As of December 31, 2025. Customer count reflects Allianz customers in consolidated entities that are part of the customer reporting scope only.}

_{** As of June 30, 2026.}